From diplomacy to realpolitik: a likely route for COP15

From diplomacy to realpolitik: a likely route for COP15

Several days of diplomatic maneuvering, lobbying and arm-wrestling could pave the way for the heads of states to seal a political deal after 12 days of strenuous conversations and off-the-record conspiring.

Sergio Abranches, from Copenhagen

Denmark’s Prime Minister Lars Rasmussen’s opening speech at the Climate Summit has caused discomfort, frustration and irritation among many well-informed observers. He returned to the idea of an agreement to save face because there is no time to create the necessary and sufficient political conditions for a full deal.

At the same time, much negotiation, arm-wrestling and maneuvering are already taking place behind the curtains. At the center of off-the-record conversations are two main issues: the level of commitment of the developed countries, especially the US; and finance for both mitigation and adaptation efforts in the developing world.

A negotiator has told me that “the numbers can be somehow dealt with. The main difficulty is to arrive at an acceptable finance equation.”

There are numerous rumors about finance proposals circulating the Bella Center, the headquarters for the Climate Summit. Some are contradictory among themselves. One rumor says the US is about to announce a far more aggressive financial proposal, to compensate for president Obama’s political limitations regarding the US numbers of GHG emissions reductions. Other tell about an agreement towards a small short-term finance commitment, to postpone any firm decision on a broader and more expensive scheme. There is also signs that Japan’s Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, could propose a third way to the financial hurdle.

There are several political crosscutting undercurrents heating up the convention center. EU diplomats, and NGOs that work hand in hand with European governments are dissatisfied with the US weak inputs to the deal. The leading countries of the G77 and China (a conglomerate of more than 130 disparate countries), Brazil and China, have been entertaining bilateral conversations attempting to take the lead on the negotiations. A broad majority of the persons I talked with today tend to agree that the host country – Denmark – has not been very helpful so far. The text it has forwarded as a draft of the agreement, for example, has been widely rejected as a “nonstarter”.

From a predictable opening to heated background discussions, an overflow of rumors, and an unending political wrestling from room to room of the Bella Center, everything point to a major political and diplomatic event. That’s how progress is made. Piece by piece, with much struggling, testing, teasing and bickering.

At the end of the day, when the heads of governments meet, they’ll probably turn a formal diplomatic meeting into a full political dealing. Some good news could come from this shift from diplomacy to realpolitik.